Canada Express Entry Draw 2024 Predictions: Changes, CRS Scores, Category-Based Opportunities

Canada aims to welcome around 110,770 new permanent residents through the Express Entry system this year. The target falls within a range of 90,000 to 116,000, with 110,770 being the preferred number.

The initial Express Entry draw for 2024 by IRCC is awaited and might be revealed soon. Meanwhile, we’ve crafted expectations for future invitation rounds. This article explores our analysis, helping readers understand our projections and plan accordingly.

Taking a Brief Look Back at Express Entry Draws in 2023:

As we venture into 2024, it becomes significant to take a step back and examine the broader perspective of the draws that unfolded in the preceding year. This holds particular importance as 2023 marked the initiation of category-based invitation rounds within the Express Entry system. The year provided valuable insights into this new approach, laying the groundwork for a comprehensive understanding as we move forward.

IRCC has introduced a change, replacing the term “no program specified” draw with “general” draws. This adjustment signifies that all profiles within the Express Entry system are now considered during general draws.

In 2023, Canada issued invitations to 110,266 primary applicants for permanent residency (PR) through 42 rounds. The introduction of category-based draws on June 28, 2023, led to 27 rounds, inviting a total of 51,218 individuals.

The breakdown of draw types and corresponding statistics is as follows:                  

1. ‘No Program’ or ‘General’ Invitations since Targeted Draws Introduction:

1. Invitations: 23,800
2. Number of Draws: 19
3. CRS Cutoff Range: 496-561
4. Percentage of Total Invitations: 46.47%

2. Francophone Invitations:

1. Invitations: 8,700
2. Number of Draws: 6
3. CRS Cutoff Range: 375-486
4. Percentage of Total Invitations: 16.99%

3. STEM Invitations:

1. Invitations: 6,400
2. Number of Draws: 2
3. CRS Cutoff Range: 481-486
4. Percentage of Total Invitations: 12.50%

4. Healthcare Invitations:

1. Invitations: 5,600
2. Number of Draws: 3
3. CRS Cutoff Range: 431-476
4. Percentage of Total Invitations: 10.93%

5. Trade Invitations:

1. Invitations: 2,500
2. Number of Draws: 2
3. CRS Cutoff Range: 388-425
4. Percentage of Total Invitations: 4.88%

6. Transport Invitations:

1. Invitations: 1,670
2. Number of Draws: 2
3. CRS Cutoff Range: 435
4. Percentage of Total Invitations: 3.26%

7. PNP Only:

1. Invitations: 1,548
2. Number of Draws: 1
3. CRS Cutoff Range: 776
4. Percentage of Total Invitations: 3.02%

8. Agriculture and Agri-food Invitations:

1. Invitations: 1,000
2. Number of Draws: 2
3. CRS Cutoff Range: 354-386
4. Percentage of Total Invitations: 1.95%

Total:

1. Invitations: 51,218
2. Number of Draws: 37
3. CRS Cutoff Range: 354-561

This comprehensive overview sheds light on the varied categories and their respective contributions to Express Entry draws since June 28, 2023.Top of Form

Category-Based Opportunities in 2024 Express Entry Draws

In the realm of non-targeted or general Express Entry draws, a notable shift has occurred, establishing the 510 Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score as the current benchmark.

Even with a 510 CRS score, the prospects seem dim for regular and large-sized general invitations from IRCC.

For higher chances, a CRS score above 520 is recommended, with expectations of invitations starting at 530+ in the initial general rounds.

In category-based or targeted draws, the Trade, Agriculture & Agri-Food, and Transport categories present opportunities with low CRS cutoffs.

Healthcare, while ranking second, anticipates a relatively higher CRS cutoff, especially when compared to the STEM category.

Trade and French proficiency are favored for 2024 draws due to lower CRS cutoffs, enhanced provincial nomination prospects, and an anticipated rise in invitations.

STEM and healthcare, despite higher CRS cutoffs, are considered promising with increased chances of provincial nominations boosting CRS scores.

Agriculture & Agri-Food and Transport draw may be less frequent but are likely to maintain low CRS cutoffs.                                                                                                      

Anticipated CRS Scores for the Next Express Entry Draw

• Trade-targeted draw: 410
• Agriculture and Agri-food draw: 390
• Transport targeted draw: 430
• French-focused draw: 470
• STEM Targeted Draw: 478
• Healthcare Targeted Draw: 425
• Provincial Nominee Program (PNP): 740
• No Program Specified: 530+

Note: These predictions are speculative and based on existing information and past data. No official confirmation has been provided by the Canadian immigration department. This forecast is subject to change as more information becomes available.